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CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES:
    * TROPICAL DEPRESSION TALAS (15W) - 36.8N 134.9E…
    * TROPICAL STORM NORU(16W) - 32.5N 149.6E…

NRL INVEST AREAS:
    * 90W - 16.9N 131.2E… more on this in a little while with the MTC Tropical Disturbance Advisory.

NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS AS OF MODEL RUN OF 12z (8PM 04 Sept)
    * GFS - Suspect areas in the West Philippine Sea (17N, 115N), 90W to move ENE.
    * NOGAPS - No forecast run yet
    * ECMWF - Suspect areas near Vietnam, 90W to drift NE.
    * FIMY - 2 suspect areas forming north of the Marianas, drifting west.
    * UKMET - Suspect area in the West Philippine Sea by 12 Sept
    * FIM8 - 2 suspect areas forming north of the Marianas, and in the West Phil sea.
    * CMC - Several circulations, all in the north of the marianas

NOAA FORMATION PROBABLILITY:

Here is a short summary of what is being watched over in the Western Pacific.

NRL INVEST AREAS:

• 94W - 3.9N 150.5E… more on this in a little while with the MTC Tropical Disturbance Advisory.

NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS AS OF MODEL RUN OF 12z (8PM 14 Aug)

• NCEP - A circulation to form around 18N 150E, NE of Guam by 20 Aug
• NOGAPS - A circulation to form right in the Marianas by 18 Aug, then track NW.
• ECMWF - No appreciable circulation formation until 20 Aug
• FIMY - A circulation to form around 20N 150E, NE of Guam by 20 Aug
• UKMET - No appreciable circulation formation until 20 Aug
• FIM8 - A circulation to form around 20N 150E, NE of Guam by 20 Aug
• CMC - Several circulations, most significant one to form right in the Marianas by 17 Aug
• GFS - A circulation to form around 15N 135E, E of Luzon by 17 Aug

NOAA FORMATION PROBABLILITY:

MTC shall be posting a daily tropical update starting today August 13.

It shall contain the following:

• INVEST AREAS - Areas of tropical activity being watched by the US Naval Research Laboratory’s Tropical Cyclone Page and their Tropical Cyclone (bagyo) formation probabilities. This will be updated every 12 hours.
• MODEL FORECASTS - Tropical Cyclone formation probabilities from the available computer models.
• NOAA Formation Probability - Areas that NOAA thinks that TC formation is probable.

MTC shall not make any effort to try and make a weather forecast :)

Powerful category 3 Typhoon Muifa (Kabayan) bearing down on Okinawa Island, Ryukyu Islands of Japan, Packing winds of 175kph…

Radar image courtesy of Japan Meteorological Agency…

On a side note, hope our local PAGASA will have something like this soon :)

Here is another Muifa/Kabayan shot :)

Infrared image of Super Typhoon Kabayan/Muifa, East of Northern Luzon, packing 1-minute average winds of 260 kilometers per hour and has remained stationary.

Just had to save this. Amazing pinhole eye of Super Typhoon KABAYAN/MUIFA.

Manila dodges bullet as Juaning now a SEVERE TROPICAL STORM, Moves northwest into Aurora Province.

As of 8am this morning

15.7N 122.1E… 60km East of Baler, Aurora… 65km South of Casiguran, Aurora…165 km Northeast of Metro Manila

Winds of 100 kph with gusts of 120kph now near the center… Moving Northwest at 10kph

LANDFALL THREAT: Aurora Province today

Huge incomplete eyewall of Tropical Storm Juaning.